Global, Regional, and Subregional Trends in Unintended Pregnancy and Its Outcomes from 1990 to 2014: Estimates from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Background: Quotes of pregnancy incidence by intent status and outcome suggest how effectively women and couples have the ability to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by objective status and result for 1990–2014 Methods: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the circulation of females across subgroups specified by marital status and contraceptive need and usage, and of the danger of unexpected pregnancy in each subgroup. Data included varieties of births and of ladies approximated by the UN Population Department, recently released abortion incidence quotes, and findings from studies of females on the portion of births or pregnancies that were unintentional. Some 298 datapoints on the intention status of births or pregnancies were gotten for 105 nations. Findings: Worldwide, an approximated 44% (90% unpredictability period [UI] 42–48) of pregnancies were unexpected in 2010–14 The unintended pregnancy rate declined by 30% (90% UI 21–39) in developed areas, from 64 (59–81) per 1000 women aged 15–44 years in 1990–94 to 45 (42–56) in 2010–14 In establishing regions, the unintended pregnancy rate fell 16% (90% UI 5–24), from 77 (74–88) per 1000 women aged 15–44 years to 65 (62–76). Whereas the decline in the unexpected pregnancy rate in established regions coincided with a decreasing abortion rate, the decrease in establishing regions coincided with a decreasing unexpected birth rate. In 2010–14, 59% (90% UI 54–65) of unintentional pregnancies ended in abortion in industrialized regions, as did 55% (52–60) of unintentional pregnancies in developing areas. Analysis: The unexpected pregnancy rate stays significantly greater in developing areas than in developed regions. Sexual and reproductive health services are needed to assist females avoid unintended pregnancies, and to guarantee healthy results for those who do experience such pregnancies. Financing: Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and UK Aid from the UK Government.

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